How the Political Landscape Shifts for NYC After Trump Win

“It’s tough to make predictions–especially about the future.”

– Yogi Berra

For those Democrats looking for a silver lining in the Nov. 5 election results here’s the best news I can offer: there won’t be another January 6th insurrection in 2025 and there will be an orderly transition of power in Washington, D.C.

Once again, the pendulum of American presidential and congressional politics has swung back to the red column. Since the 1940’s, neither political party has had more than three consecutive terms in power and there’s been very few phases where one party controlled all three branches of government. But in less than two years, the whole equation can change if Democrats can flip either the House or Senate. This would slow down the Trump administration’s free hand in making fast-paced change and cementing policies unpopular with liberals.

What impact will all this have on New York? Looks like the Trump victory will accelerate certain public policies and infrastructure projects, alter the winds of mayoral politics—at least in the short term—and generally give New York State Republicans hope that the Empire State is getting redder than it’s been in years. Congestion pricing, the political football that was punted down the field till after the election by Governor Kathy Hochul, is back and she said on Nov. 14 that she hopes to have it operating by Jan. 5 at a $9 max toll for cars. The revenue from congestion pricing is projected to drop to approximately $600 million, down from the original $900 million to $1 billion, but somehow Hochul says it will still be able to cover the $15 billion in bonds that the state plans to borrow based on the revenue from the toll. Will that be beefed up fare enforcement on subways and buses (where almost 50 percent of riders neglect to pay according to recent studies)? Another domino that might fall because of Trump’s victory: the long-awaited overhaul of the eyesore that is called Penn Station. Reports of Governor Hochul’s first phone call with the President-elect indicate that they found common ground on moving ahead with the Penn Station makeover.

Trump, although now a Florida resident, is a native New Yorker and he must still want to improve some of the once-grand structures in his hometown. On the mayoral front, Eric Adams may have been thrown a lifeline with Trump’s resounding victory. Adams has been in the crosshairs of the U.S. Attorney in the Southern District Damian Williams. But Trump said he wants to replace Williams with Jay Clayton, his former chairman of the SEC. Does Clayton drop the case (like Joon Kim dropped an investigation into Bill de Blasio investigation in the wake of Preet Bharara firing by Trump in 2017? Adams federal corruption charge is scheduled to start in April just two months before the Democratic primary.

But, but, but...even Trump (especially Trump?!) can’t help the mayor’s sub-basement approval ratings with NY voters. The ever growing field of mayoral challengers will likely grow in the next two months —with a certain former Governor looming over everything.

Can Andrew Cuomo win? Cuomo’s chances have likely improved a bit in recent months. The mayor’s top administration officials have fled the burning building, the public’s dim views of his performance and ethics have calcified, and the field of left-leaning mayoral challengers has ballooned—in an environment where voters in the five boroughs voted in much greater numbers for the Red team in last week’s election. Moderates like Cuomo and former Comptroller Scott Stringer would seem to benefit from the voters backlash against progressive Democrats locally and nationally. And now there’s a new outsider candidate, an attorney named Jim Weldon, in the Democratic primary mix along with a far-left Democratic socialist, Assemblymember Zoran Mandani. GOP State Chairman Ed Cox and billionaire supermarket magnate-radio station mogul (WABC-AM 770) John Catsimatidis sense an opening for a moderate Republican in 2025 and although it’s still a longshot for a Republican to win the mayoralty, we are only 12 years removed from a two-decade run of Republican mayors ruling the City (Giuliani 1993-2001; Bloomberg 2002-2014).

So, the crystal ball is still reverberating from the Nov. 5 political earthquake but some likely trends are coming into view. Predictions, like the pixels they’re written on, are ephemeral and fluid, but that’s the view from here, just days after the MAGA comeback caused 68 million Democrats to wake up with PTSD from an election shock that began just eight short years ago. Enjoy the holiday season, buckle your seatbelts and renew your Washington Post subscription (but buy less from Amazon!)—the circus is back in D.C. and the view from the Big Apple is slowly coming in to focus.

Tom Allon is the founder and publisher of City & State. A version of this article previously appeared in City & State on November 10.